After evaluating the market, Sydney and I are recommending that we shift 5M $RLY within the Treasury into USDC.
Short Term Analysis:
During this time we have been seeing increasing volatility across macro markets. This impacts crypto as Bitcoin/Ethereum have gone back to having strong correlations with traditional markets. Last week, we reached a new high with Bitcoin have a 0.98 correlation with the NASDAQ. The macroeconomic environment continues to be a mess with the bond markets being as chaotic as they are and inflation continuing to run rampant until the impact of the Fed’s continual increased interest rates makes its way around.
From evaluating Bitcoin, which serves as a proxy for the greater crypto market, there is continual growth in fundamental metrics but no momentum to turn those fundamentals into any meaningful price movement for the time being. Are we in a bear market? That is debatable. But we are certainly not in a bull one.
This lack of momentum comes from tighter trade volumes (inflows and outflows) and weaker futures yields, which signal that capital is moving out. From a supply standpoint, it’s likely that this sell-off can lend towards a decoupling as Bitcoin shift hands from TradFi to more crypto natives. Short term bearish but still long term bullish.
- We are proposing to convert 5M in $RLY to USDC as this will not impact the reviewer’s ability to source deals, incubate ideas and disburse funds to grants for the remainder of Q2 as well as Q3.
- USDC is the preferred stablecoin as we already account for it in our Gnosis Safe.
- If our budget shifts more towards marketing operations, we will be in a better position for this.
- We can easily shift this back into RLY for Q3/Q4.
- This will be done through 1inch.
- This will be done in several parts over the course of the next month or two so as to minimize the price impact this would have on RLY (and prevent any potential frontrunning).